Why Turnarounds Seldom Turn: Buffett's 1979 Lessons on Business Quality vs. Bargain Prices

Warren Buffett's Investment Best Practices

From the 1979 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letter

Performance Measurement

  • The primary test of managerial economic performance is achieving a high earnings rate on equity capital employed (without undue leverage or accounting gimmicks)
  • Earnings per share alone can be misleading as a performance indicator - even a "stopped clock" can show EPS growth with low dividend payout
  • For long-term performance evaluation, include realized capital gains/losses and use market value of equity securities

Business Assessment

  • "Turnarounds seldom turn" - the same energy and talent are better employed in a good business at a fair price than a poor business at a bargain price
  • High-quality businesses often have built-in economic advantages that make extraordinary returns almost unavoidable (like network TV stations)
  • The textile business demonstrates that even statistical bargains can be mistakes when operating in challenging industries

Capital Allocation

  • Avoid long-term fixed-price contracts during inflation - particularly long-term bonds denominated in dollars
  • Focus investments where management can effectively utilize retained earnings to create at least equivalent market value
  • "Neither a short-term borrower nor a long-term lender be" (Buffett's adaptation of Polonius)

Portfolio Management

  • Concentrate investments in businesses you understand and want, without giving consideration to impact on volume
  • Successful equity investments depend on the underlying companies performing well over time
  • Retained earnings of investee companies (not reported in financial statements) represent significant hidden value

Business Operations

  • Strong-minded underwriting discipline is essential in insurance - be willing to reduce volume to maintain profitability
  • Centralize financial decisions at the top while delegating operating authority to key managers
  • The right organizational structure attracts exceptional talent who perform better when given autonomy

Shareholder Relations

  • Companies get the shareholder constituency they seek and deserve
  • Prefer long-term shareholders who understand the operation and share expectations
  • Owners deserve direct, candid communication from the CEO with the same scope, balance and candor as internal reporting

Investment Outlook

  • Inflation plus taxes create an "investor's misery index" - when this exceeds business returns, real capital shrinks
  • External conditions affecting currency stability may be the most important factor determining investment rewards
  • True investment success means reasonable gain in purchasing power from funds committed